I am working on passive defense modeling, using GIS. Modeling passive defense can be better implemented using GIS and I've come up with my own methods. It would be far better for me if I know there are any previous works on this area. I want to be informed about any application of GIS in passive and agent defense that are publicly available. For example, where to locate the military bases, so that we have the minimum casualties in the case of external attack.
I have encountered some papers and talks on this and related field through my work on Risk Analysis, the journal of the Society for Risk Analysis. The most relevant recent paper is
This is not specifically about a GIS application but it provides an approach to identifying factors, including geographic ones, that would have to be considered in optimizing military base location.
There are only one or two papers published per year (out of several hundred) in this highly-regarded journal that make significant use of GIS. If anyone is applying GIS to risk assessment (of any sort), consider publishing an account of it there.
This looks interesting: "ACTIVE VS. PASSIVE DEFENSE AGAINST A STRATEGIC ATTACKER" (their caps, not mine). While it doesn't explicitly address GIS, it seems like spatial analysis could be used in determining the vulnerability component of the model.
TLDR: Combined Arms doctrine renders terrain defense moot.
This area of study is referred to as terrain defense doctrine.
The modeling you are proposing is possible, but would almost always return no result if the attack vectors are modern (air). Because terrain is rendered moot if you can fly. This type of modeling is usually only considered against specific threats not general ones.
Defense positioning doctrine mostly refers to logistic offense not structural defense. You place hard assets to defend logistical assets like rivers and airports, not to defend the base itself.
The "text book" on terrain defense was mostly written by the Germans in their defense of France, but as they lost the terrain the issue of air superiority supersedes any terrain advantages.
German Doctrine of the Stabilized Front