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I'm interested in seeing authoritative model results showing how radioactive contaminants from Japan might circulate through wind and water.

map lie The AGU blog points out this bad model, but in skimming the sites they reference I didn't see any other models. I see no mention of radiation at NOAA's Global Forecast System. Where are the reputable models?


locked by PolyGeo Jun 20 at 3:36

This question's answers are a collaborative effort: if you see something that can be improved, just edit the answer to improve it! No additional answers can be added here

Not definite model, but might be of interest:… – radek Mar 24 '11 at 21:00
Also some additional pointers @ O'REILLY radar: – radek Apr 12 '11 at 19:37
Few more:… – radek Apr 16 '11 at 18:29
Interesting initiative in crowdsourcing… – radek May 8 '11 at 12:13

Here's a model published by NYT, linked to from this article.

Update Paul Kedrosky says ...

"There was an irresponsible piece in the New York Times last night suggesting that radiation from Japan’s Fukushima reactor could be in California by tomorrow"

He likes Jeff Masters blog post about to this NOAA model better. I think the public needs a weatherman dancing and waving hands in front of a chroma key map of model results to effectively communicate probabilities. Perhaps Morten Nielsen's kinect tool could be used by analysts to mashup their own interpretive dance on top of a map video.

enter image description here

Anyone know why random clouds start appearing over California on 3/17? – jvangeld Mar 17 '11 at 18:15
Two of the links in this post result in 404 errors. – Fezter Jun 20 at 5:27

One from the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy:

enter image description here

+1 for a bit of hope, no idea if its accurate though. – jvangeld Mar 17 '11 at 18:14

Here the ZAMG model as of today: Fukushima plume end of March 2011 (go to their main page)



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Probably the best suite of models for atmospheric dispersion, especially of nuclear materials, is from NARAC of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any public results attributed to NARAC. If you have business or public safety mission needs, you may a be able to get access to NARAC model results if available.


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