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I have developed a vector layer which predicts which polygons are more or less likely to experience coral bleaching. I now have another vector layer with the same extent with actual coral bleaching data. Each of the layers are split into the same distribution of polygons and each polygon has a value of 1 (high), 2 (medium) or 3 (low) for both datasets.

I want to validate my predicted layer with the actual results in a quantitative manner but I'm unsure of the best way to go about this.

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You could perform a spatial join between the Actual and Predicted polygon layers, to give an output layer which has fields for both Actual_Bleaching and Predicted_Bleaching.

You can then use Select By Attributes to find polygons where your predictions were correct, or where you over/under-predicted bleaching.

In terms of quantifying the result, you could calculate the number/percentage/area of the polygons which were correctly-, under- and over-predicted.

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