Estimate population with two overlapping shapefiles

Question

I have two levels of geography: blue polygons (18,000 districts) and black polygons (400 districts).

But, I only have population data for the blue areas

Is there a tool in Arc Map which will estimate the population inside the black polygons (using the blue's population data)?

The population estimates will be inaccurate because population density will not be uniform across your subregions (blue polygons). — Aaron, Sep 9, 2020 at 14:12
Ah I understand what you mean, but the blue polygons are government statistical areas generated to be of a similar size to one another, to aid statistical analysis, so perhaps that lessens the problem. But yeah, I still need to keep the accuracy in mind, thanks! — Kerri, Sep 9, 2020 at 14:30
Are the blue polygons ever divided by the black polygons, or are the blue polygons always contained entirely within black polygons? — Aaron, Sep 9, 2020 at 14:56
I would not recommend estimating population using the method you describe. Even using a ratio policy as @BERA suggests assumes the population is uniformly distributed throughout the blue polygons. The results will not be statistically valid. — Aaron, Sep 10, 2020 at 14:59

BERA · Accepted Answer · 2020-09-09 13:57:09Z

2

Make feature layer with blue polygon as input and with "Use ratio policy" checked on population field
Intersect the feature layer you just created with the black polygons
Summary statistics (or dissolve if you also want the geometries) on intersect output

answered Sep 9, 2020 at 13:57

BERA

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