Using the same list of occurrences with present and future bioclimatic variables (worldclim) I get two obviously different distributions. In the case of the future projection, I assume that the occurrences are the same as now. The same climatic conditions as now, however, will not be the same as the 2070 model, so in 2070 the species may no longer exist. How can I correct this factin the data analysed? Not only will bioclimatic variables change but land cover and other variables will also not be the same. Can I consider the second result (biocliamic variables of 2070) as the distribution of the species in the future?
I am preparing my master's thesis in geography at the University of Bologna. I would like to use an indicator species (e.g. bees) to check the effects of climate change in the Apuan Alps over the next 50 years.